Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Pre-results Commentary

Alright, I went out to the polls with my grandfather to get a feel of how turnout was going. I have one keen observation. Turnout in Central VA is low. This is the first primary election that post-Obama, and I have to give Obama credit for one thing: he sure can turn out voters to elections that people really don't care about. I'm really disappointed at how apathetic voters have been on off-year elections. Off-year congressional, statewide, and local elections are much more important than most folks realize.

Anyways, enough of my rambling about my disappointment in the turnout. Deeds recent momentum has only been a recent polling anomaly that began to show up in Public Policy Polling surveys a few weeks back due to the WaPo endorsement. Until most recently, Mr. McAuliffe had a sizable lead over the rest of the pack. In the polls that showed McAuliffe leading, there were still many undecideds. Over time, the undecideds went overwhelmingly towards Deeds. Accoring to Survey USA, Deeds should lead Independents, Republicans, and should slightly edge out McAuliffe and Moran for a nice little lead among registered Republicans. The low turnout could prove to be an aid to McAuliffe who has an excellent organization running a really good ground game here in Virginia. Moran also has good name recognition in NOVA, so I wouldn't count him out in that region. While I do feel the race may be called pretty early for Mr.Deeds, if early numbers show a tight race, we may be in for a long night.

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